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By Chris Campbell, AlutcherConfidential.com
This Tuesday, the bigwigs at British banking giant Standard Chartered threw down the gauntlet…
And doubled down on their Bitcoin bet:
Bitcoin to $100K by the end of 2024.
You might recall…
Standard Chartered first put its cards on the table back in April, touting Bitcoin as the new ‘safe haven' asset.
Geoff Kendrick, the mastermind behind the bank's FX research, is the man with the blueprint.
He's pinpointed not one, but two — and possibly three — triggers that could catapult Bitcoin to $100K.
(Spoiler: You’ve probably heard it all before. But you likely HAVEN’T heard what Standard left out.)
1.] Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick’s betting his chips on it happening early 2024. James and I both agree.
Then, there's the second:
2.] The Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
For the uninitiated, that's when Bitcoin's mining reward gets sliced in half – a historical booster for its value.
All fine and well so far.
But then Kendrick lays out his third prediction:
3.] Potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Right now, the market is pricing in a .25% cut for May of 2024.
In fact, the probability of a Fed rate cut in May moved up a whopping 77% today.
Contrast that with a mere 23% a month ago.
Many of our analysts are taking the other side of this bet, so those counting on rate cuts might end up disappointed.
That said…
We think BTC will do well either way.
Now, the fun part.
If you’re looking for a “crystal ball”, there’s a pretty good indicator that not too many people know about. (And if they do, they don’t yet recognize its power.)
The GBTC Discount Window
The real deal is the GBTC discount window.
If you have no idea what this means, you’re far from alone.
GBTC is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust — an investment vehicle that allows investors to trade shares in trusts holding large pools of Bitcoin.
Right now, they’re waiting for approval from the SEC to morph the trust into an ETF.
How is the trust different from an ETF? That’s a good question.
In a trust like GBTC, you’re not directly investing in Bitcoin. GBTC owns Bitcoin, but you’re just buying shares of the trust that owns Bitcoin.
Upon inception, GBTC issued a fixed number of shares. After that, no new shares are created or redeemed. Instead, they’re traded on a secondary market.
In contrast, ETFs match the investment on a one-to-one basis. Therefore, they have an arbitrage redemption mechanism that keeps share prices close to its net asset value (NAV).
Since closed-end funds like GBTC have no arbitrage redemption mechanism, their price can deviate from the NAV. This creates a price gap that swings with market moods.
Hence, the “discount window.”
As of Monday, GBTC's discount to Bitcoin shrank to a mere 8% — the tightest since July 2021.
What does this mean?
Smart money is betting on the SEC nodding yes to Grayscale's pitch to morph GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. If that happens, anyone holding GBTC at a discount could cash in big, matching their GBTC to Bitcoin one-for-one.
So, here's a pro tip: Want to know where the Bitcoin ETF wind is blowing? Keep your eyes on the GBTC discount.
A narrowing gap signals a thumbs-up from the market, while a widening one?
Well, that's another story.
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